Roulette: Game of chance?

[droid42]

Hi all,

This is my first post here so a quick "hello".

I've been having a number of arguments with my girlfriend recently regarding the nature of where the ball falls in casino roulette.

Her opinion: There is a program that determines where the ball falls. She can't say the nature by which the ball/wheel combination is physically controlled but she has stated that an experienced dealer can influence where the ball ends up. She says that a good strategy to predict the numbers will ultimately give a good player the edge. Apparently it's not the same as throwing a 37/38-sided dice in that past results can influence future results (according to her).

My opinion: There are no pre-determined numbers, either in the heads of the casino bosses or the dealer. The way the ball and wheel interact is so chaotic that even miniscule differences in initial speed/position of the ball/wheel can result in completey different results. I agree that devices exist that could improve a players odds by analysing ball/wheel speed to guess roughly where the ball will end up. And yes, a poorly-maintained wheel may give slightly skewed results or, in rare cases, muscle memory might mean a seasoned dealer throws the ball at nearly exactly the same speed every time, but it's unintentional and non-deterministic.

So, who's right? Interested in opinions from experienced gamblers and/or specifically roulette players (I'm a poker player myself so have little experience of roulette).

Thanks in advance,

Ian.

[h2ogib]

Hi,
I play blackjack not roulette but have read a bit and here is what i understand:

Its not a completly random event, if you look at it in a science kinda way:
Same ball everytime
Same wheel everytime
Same arm spinning it everytime
atmosphere same for period of time

They are a few good books based on true stories about people beating roulette with prediction methods, a good one i think from the 70's were they made devices in thier shoes, inputted all the infomation for the wheel that was the same everytime, then by recording where the ball was in relation to the numbers after a few seconds they could predict an 'area' of the wheel that it would land in, all before final bets.

Also a recent story in the papers told how a team of 3 people took millions from The Ritz casino by using a ball tracking device like a mobile phone, i presume maybe tracking the balls speed and figuring which dimond it would hit and what numbers would be under it at a time?

I always find when i am playing roulette i do better playing numbers which have recently came up, which supports these ideas but on a less profession level.

Hope some of this nonsense helps your argument!

Adam

[bennifer]

hey droid, this is my first post too.

to put it bluntly, your girlfriend is right. experienced croupiers can figure out at what point to drop the ball to hit a certain section of the wheel and force a "hot" player to lose. this is possible because a roulette wheel is NOT a random system but a so-called "chaotic" system since it is deterministic. what that means is that if a dealer were to drop the ball from a certain height, at a certain velocity, at a certain point, with certain wind conditions, etc...and then another person were to replicate these conditions EXACTLY, they would hit the EXACT same number. if it were fully random, then it would not matter if the preconditions were the same or not, the outcome should not automatically or necessarily repeat. i have been studying this quite a bit and use a roulette system quite succesfully that bases itself on this theory. like h2ogib said, there was a case at the ritz casino where 3 people used a laser device to better predict where the ball would land and reduce the odds on a straight number from 1:37 to 1:6. by definition the roulette wheel cannot be considered random since the laser at no point actually interfered with or altered the outcome. again, if it was trully random, the laser should not have made a difference in terms of prediction.

hope this makes sense,
ricardo.

[jglenny]

But even if the croupier was trying to do everything EXACTLY the same he wouldn't be able to manage it would he?

Best system for roulette is play poker

If you have to play roulette, just pick any numbers and enjoy yourself forget trying to use "methods".

[casinoxp]

I agree - 'systems' can appear to work short term, but you'll probably end up losing all your winnings back to the casino - The longer you play, the more chance there is that the house edge will kick in:

"...In European roulette, the online casino (house) has an edge of 2.70% - The player has a 1 in 37 (36:1) chance of winning a 'straight-up' bet and gets paid at 35:1. However in American roulette the extra '00' pocket increases the house edge to 5.26% - The true odds on a 'straight-up' bet are 37:1, but the player still receives odds of 35:1."

[Johnny Casino]

hey droid, this is my first post too.

to put it bluntly, your girlfriend is right. experienced croupiers can figure out at what point to drop the ball to hit a certain section of the wheel and force a "hot" player to lose. this is possible because a roulette wheel is NOT a random system but a so-called "chaotic" system since it is deterministic. what that means is that if a dealer were to drop the ball from a certain height, at a certain velocity, at a certain point, with certain wind conditions, etc...and then another person were to replicate these conditions EXACTLY, they would hit the EXACT same number. if it were fully random, then it would not matter if the preconditions were the same or not, the outcome should not automatically or necessarily repeat. i have been studying this quite a bit and use a roulette system quite succesfully that bases itself on this theory. like h2ogib said, there was a case at the ritz casino where 3 people used a laser device to better predict where the ball would land and reduce the odds on a straight number from 1:37 to 1:6. by definition the roulette wheel cannot be considered random since the laser at no point actually interfered with or altered the outcome. again, if it was trully random, the laser should not have made a difference in terms of prediction.

hope this makes sense,
ricardo.

he's right. i've had them get into a bit of a routine/pattern after a while and spin up similar each time. then as you get confident and up the bets he sorts you out.

[spunky]

As others in this thread have pointed out and your girl friend correctly said roulette is not total random. Lets say a croupiet is on a 1 hour 30 min shift - the first 30 mins he/she will vary the force used on/placement of the ball after which he/she will start to relax and vary it less and less until in the final let say 30-40 mins of their shift it will become aparent to those who are extremely good at maths/very regular-pro gamblers that a sequence will emerge although there will still be the odd flaw in the sequence numbers can be expected to appear in the sequence maybe 3-4 times out of 5 giving the gambler the edge. My strategy at this point most often is to play seven higher and seven lower than the previous number unless a very obvious sequence is occuring (very rarely the case) which I have worked out currently has given me 3 times out of 5 on average thus giving a large profit if big stakes are made over the short period and then immediately collected.

[croup]

Sorry for the necropost and im sure that droid doesnt come round here anymore but given the recent discussion on roulette spinning i felt that this description is one of the best, most succint and accurate ways to describe it:

My opinion: There are no pre-determined numbers, either in the heads of the casino bosses or the dealer. The way the ball and wheel interact is so chaotic that even miniscule differences in initial speed/position of the ball/wheel can result in completey different results. I agree that devices exist that could improve a players odds by analysing ball/wheel speed to guess roughly where the ball will end up. And yes, a poorly-maintained wheel may give slightly skewed results or, in rare cases, muscle memory might mean a seasoned dealer throws the ball at nearly exactly the same speed every time, but it's unintentional and non-deterministic.

Spot on.

[s4ooter]

see im not too sure and ill tell u why - i went to the casino and played on the computer version linked to the live table, ok granted u have the opportunity to "play" a system as u can miss spins out etc and i would wait for 3 red/3 balcks and then go against. or would follow the 3rds and bet the two 3rds that hadnt come in. eg if 1 was the last spin i would bet on 2nd 3rd and last 3rd

i won £1000+ from £5 yes luck but still a nice win.

then i played live the week later and my mate was quite hot winnin on the 2 out 3 3rds rule so i decided to follow his bet, and we lost. everytime i follwed his bet the croupier seemed to kill us....if i bet differently one of us would win.
Coincidence of the croupiers skill?! well i ask u?!

[croup]

Trust me, it really is coincidence. Especially when you are talking about columns or dozens. If you look at the roulette wheel from 0:

0,32,15,19,4,21,2,25,17,34,6,27,13,36,11,30,8,23,1 0,5,24,16,33,1,20,14,31,9,22,18,29,7,28,12,35,3,26

Take a look at how spread out the numbers for any given dozen are. Hitting a single number, especially one that changes each spin is impossible. You see some crazy things in roulette, i once span black 14 times in a row and many a customer on that table lost their shirt betting red. In the long term it all pans out. If you go to that same croupier and play for long enough you will see that.