Theoretical basis for a perfect roulette system

[rouletteadvantagepro]

Hello everyone!
I know it's impossible to find a system that will always win, but here is an idea of a system that actually might be fruitfull. Hope someone has enough time and patience to implement it.
First of all, there is one argument against those who believe that the house advantage cannot be overcome - house advantage relates to the NUMBER OF WINNING SPINS HOUSE HAS OVER THE PLAYER, and not the money you put in a game. This means that the house wins approximatelly 52.5 times in a 100 spins series, while the player has 47.5 wins. If player wins 1.5 chip each time, and loses 1 chip when the house wins, who's ahead?
That is one thing! The other relates to odds. It is very common opinion that each spin represents an isolated event, and each time you bet on red you have around 47.5% of chance for winning. However, what is the probability of the tenth red in a row? It is actually simple to calculate:
0.475x0.475x0.475x0.475 (and so on... 10 times...)=0.0007 (0.07%). This probability is rather low, but it's not impossible.
Ok, now back to the system proposal. As you probably know by now, it is very rare (if not impossible) to have a streak of more than 25 different numbers. Hence the system basis - simply follow last numbers that came out, and sooner or later you'll hit a winner.
let's here what you have to say about it...

[DenFos]

Hi roulette....are you saying wait for a series of 25 different numbers to appear then bet all those? It wouldn't work cos you may have to wait for 13 hours for that to happen, even if it did it would be impossible to put chips down on 25 different numbers at a busy table. I'm afraid you'll have to elaborate...however, following the trend is a very sound idea 'The trend is your friend' and all that...

[croup]

This is still based on the misconception that previous events in roulette will affect future spins. The game has no memory unlike poker or blackjack so even though you can work out that the probability of getting 10 reds in a row is very slim it is not a usable statistic as each new spin is a seperate incident. The odds do also relate to money rather than number of spins. Each and every bet you place has a negative expectation of 1.35% for even chances or 2.7% for the layout and dozens. There is no way around that.

If player wins 1.5 chip each time, and loses 1 chip when the house wins, who's ahead?

Thats fine but seeing as you dont know when you are going to win and when you are going to lose how could you possibly do this? You seem to be saying that the easy way to win at roulette is just to put more money on the bets that are going to win than those that are going to lose!

Using previous spins in roulette to predict the future is a fallacy, it has absolutely no bearing on the future at all.

[DenFos]

As far as keeping with the trend goes, you can take it down to betting the last number to repeat. I have a few days of numbers (500+ spins) recorded, and the last number to repeat has always come out at a profit. It's all about keeping with the trend, quite often Red will dominate Black or Evens will dominate Odd or High will dominate Low, and vice-versa. By backing the last number to repeat you are covering all these trends. It also has a predictable number of bets if betting level stakes only. Definately worth a try if you got the time.

[DannyC]

But the math doesn't work however you look at it.

Croup has an ideal point, but trend? You can have a trend based on the past 2-30 results, but you can't predict a future trend from past data on roulette, if indeed all results are random, or before Scott starts on me, (Truly Random) truly random defined as the croupier just doing his 'exact' job, then that is truly random enough for me. Speculation and probabililities are whats causing these topics for roulette, but dont you think the casino have looked at all these angles?

If there was to any degree, any point in these topics, im sure the finest mathematician who's also the finest scientist would be raking in billions by now, dont you?

P.S

it is very rare (if not impossible) to have a streak of more than 25 different numbers.

Nothings impossible in the lovely 'random' game we call roulette!

[rouletteadvantagepro]

This is still based on the misconception that previous events in roulette will affect future spins. The game has no memory unlike poker or blackjack so even though you can work out that the probability of getting 10 reds in a row is very slim it is not a usable statistic as each new spin is a seperate incident. The odds do also relate to money rather than number of spins. Each and every bet you place has a negative expectation of 1.35% for even chances or 2.7% for the layout and dozens. There is no way around that.


Thats fine but seeing as you dont know when you are going to win and when you are going to lose how could you possibly do this? You seem to be saying that the easy way to win at roulette is just to put more money on the bets that are going to win than those that are going to lose!

Using previous spins in roulette to predict the future is a fallacy, it has absolutely no bearing on the future at all.

Well Croup, you got me there for a moment ;-) Think about it this way - you put 37 numbered balls in a jar. You pull out one at a time and then put it back in. How many balls do you expect to pull out before you hit the ball you already pulled. That's my point right there. No 'memory' in roulette - 'cause if there were any, you'd had 30 diferrent numbers in a row, and that does not happen. Since when poker and blackjack have a memory? I played the games a bit and it seems to me that exactly the same rules apply to each game (except playing poker with human, i.e. newbie - then you really got better odds...).

You don't know when are you going win, that's entirely correct. But you do know when are you going to lose - whenever you want! If you have a basis to tell you what will be your expected wins/losses distribution, then you might set a point in which you simply quit and start the session all over again. It's pretty stupid to push a sequence in roulette beyond reasonable limits.

[rouletteadvantagepro]

But the math doesn't work however you look at it.

Croup has an ideal point, but trend? You can have a trend based on the past 2-30 results, but you can't predict a future trend from past data on roulette, if indeed all results are random, or before Scott starts on me, (Truly Random) truly random defined as the croupier just doing his 'exact' job, then that is truly random enough for me. Speculation and probabililities are whats causing these topics for roulette, but dont you think the casino have looked at all these angles?

If there was to any degree, any point in these topics, im sure the finest mathematician who's also the finest scientist would be raking in billions by now, dont you?

P.S
Nothings impossible in the lovely 'random' game we call roulette!

Well - I don't pretend to be the finest anything, except finest data analyst, since it's my daily job. I spend days trying to find invisible links in the data sets and mining seemingly useless data. If you have Excel on your computer you'll easily check my basis. Use Excel's random number generator (not the one that's in the functions menu, but the one in Tools-Add Ins - Analysis toolpack ) The function name is RANDBETWEEN. Generate a decent dataset (10000 rows should be enough, but what a heck, go all the way to 65000). Then use IF to check if the number appeared already in the last 15 cells. I did it three times on 10000 presumed spins and only once hit 22 different number in a row. Pretty impressive, huh? If you have any objections on Excel's RNG, I am more than ready to share my database of 5000 spins gathered on Ladbrokes and Casino-on-Red (for those who think I was referring to land casinos in the first place, I wasn't - entire system is about online casinos), which will show you the same thing. And yes, I'm open for discussion on RNG's.

[rouletteadvantagepro]

Hi roulette....are you saying wait for a series of 25 different numbers to appear then bet all those? It wouldn't work cos you may have to wait for 13 hours for that to happen, even if it did it would be impossible to put chips down on 25 different numbers at a busy table. I'm afraid you'll have to elaborate...however, following the trend is a very sound idea 'The trend is your friend' and all that...

As I said in my previous post, the system is for online casinos - and, furthermore, it's not even a system - it's a basis for thinking. There are no trends included, you absolutely don't care what went out and don't rely on a trend - you rely on a random number generator which behaves just like in real life (see the jar example in my reply to Croup earlier...). As far as the basic idea is concerned, nobody seemed to spot the real flaw in my example - the bet progression would be geometric, so you'd need a pile of money to cover the bets once you reach 15 numbers in a row. There is the ground to develop an idea - should you cover numbers? Or splits? Or quads? Or streets? etc...

[DenFos]

My own opinion is that you can't win on on-line casinos, cos they have a built-in profit margin working against you. Sometimes at a real table you can be astonishingly lucky - I have never heard anyone say that about an on-line casino. I have seen many posts from people (various forums) concerned that the so called RNG was purposely going against their bets - usually after a (minor) winning streak.

[DenFos]

Quote: rouletteadvantagepro- Think about it this way - you put 37 numbered balls in a jar. You pull out one at a time and then put it back in. How many balls do you expect to pull out before you hit the ball you already pulled.


Your expectancy would be a winner within 8 spins, which equates to bets of 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 = 36 units. I'm sure this would be a loser on-line, but could work at a real wheel when played against individual croupiers for their first 9 spins only. Stop-loss would be 36 units & await next croup.