White xmas

**fishboy1983** · 18th December 2009, 06:15 PM

Originally Posted by lucky_scrote

It doesn't work like that mate. There is one thing I did quite well academically at school and it was the weather shizz.

I did look at that forecast thing before you posted it here and even though you have to take a 10 day forecast with a pinch of salt.

yeah i know it is alot more technical than that but with the chance of rain/snow about is it worth the risk? 4k to win 1k, it would be better to put 1k on red and hope for the best.

**lucky_scrote** · 18th December 2009, 07:29 PM

Originally Posted by fishboy1983

yeah i know it is alot more technical than that but with the chance of rain/snow about is it worth the risk? 4k to win 1k, it would be better to put 1k on red and hope for the best.

Does nobody understand betting?!?! I have not put many bets on in my life but if I think something is 1 in 8 to happen and someone offers me 1 in 4 odds, then I will be taking this bet (similar to the snow scenario).

If someone offers me evens on a 18/37 shot, then I won't take it (although I still have the odd spin on roulette weeeeeeeeeee).

**fishboy1983** · 18th December 2009, 07:50 PM

Originally Posted by lucky_scrote

Does nobody understand betting?!?! I have not put many bets on in my life but if I think something is 1 in 8 to happen and someone offers me 1 in 4 odds, then I will be taking this bet (similar to the snow scenario).

If someone offers me evens on a 18/37 shot, then I won't take it (although I still have the odd spin on roulette weeeeeeeeeee).

Yes i understand betting thanks, i go racing probably 15-20 times a year, so have place plenty of bets. As with horses you study the form, studying the weather 'form' points to laying this one a bad bet.

I have a very interesting racing system, so far this year the win percentage is over 25% which is huge! Including several winners at 10-1+++ I have been tracking horses every day for the last 6 months and have formed a very good system. I may not make huge amounts playing poker like yourself, but i do know what i am doing when it comes to betting. Hey its your money, i was just trying to offer my opinion on the forum!

**lucky_scrote** · 18th December 2009, 07:54 PM

I actually just re-read your original post, I thought it said "risk 4k to win 1k, I'd rather put 1k and hope for the best".

That was all I read and it made you sound a complete noob, which it still does a bit. I didn't read the bit before that said "in the current conditions". If I were to say that the current conditions have little correlation to the conditions in 7 days time would you still think the same?

There is really heavy snow expected tomorrow night, I'm going to take a look at the odds and the met office forecast and make a decision. Problem is I expect other people will be doing this too and if the 5 day forecast shows no potential snow then that kinda sucks. It also sucks if they predict snow because then I may not want to lay this bet. Bah, gonna have to make the bet soon.

**fishboy1983** · 18th December 2009, 08:15 PM

yes i agree the current conditions have almost not relation to the weather in a weeks time. However having had a look at the weather fronts coming in there is going to be a battle from a front coming in from the southwest and one coming from the north/north west. Now this battle is crucial, if the southwest front gets far enough up, then it will actually be quite mild around London on the 25th, with little chance of snow, however if the front from the north becomes dominant this may pass over London around the 25th with a high chance of snow. So yeah you are wise to wait until Sunday and see how it goes.

**lucky_scrote** · 18th December 2009, 08:20 PM

End of topic, WH just stopped the betting on a white christmas.

**lucky_scrote** · 25th December 2009, 12:21 PM

Meh, I'll be results orientated and say I wish I had put the bet on, or rather Will hills didn't deny my £3k bet.

Still, the cold air is still in the north of England so I would have been sweating it until yesterday. The cold air stayed in england for 2 weeks which is very rare even though Dice was the one that mentioned it would increase the chance of a white xmas.