White xmas

[lucky_scrote]

After my recent successful bet I have been tempted by another bet recently.

I really really want to bet against their being a white xmas. After e-mailing betfair for a definition I got this reply:

For the purposes of this market a single snow flake must be observed falling in the 24 hours of December 25th 2009 from the weather station at Buckingham Palace (using the london white christmas as an example). The market will be settled on official information from the Met Office.

Now I think it is a good chance for making some money in the long run here because we have experienced 10 white xmas's since 1900, on average that is 1/10 times. The recent weather has given many people hope but has almost no correlation on wether we will get snow fall in 7 days time. Odds should realistically be about 9/1 right now but because people are so optimistic you can get about 4/1 so I REALLY want to lay this. Thoughts?

I am thinking of laying about £3-5k on this.

[Gus Mango Fish]

After my recent successful bet I have been tempted by another bet recently.

I really really want to bet against their being a white xmas. After e-mailing betfair for a definition I got this reply:




Now I think it is a good chance for making some money in the long run here because we have experienced 10 white xmas's since 1900, on average that is 1/10 times. The recent weather has given many people hope but has almost no correlation on wether we will get snow fall in 7 days time. Odds should realistically be about 9/1 right now but because people are so optimistic you can get about 4/1 so I REALLY want to lay this. Thoughts?

I am thinking of laying about £3-5k on this.

Way too risky for me to consider at those stakes. But, if you're balla and confident enough and think it could be an easy £3k/£4k then go for it. I'd feel sick to lose though!

[Dice Man]

I would advise you not to. I think those are probably terrible odds to lay on. I know that everybody will get over-excited by the prospect of it, like with the prospect of England winning the World Cup. But the recent weather suggests that it is pretty likely that it will snow in London. Have you seen London recently? It's only one week away. If the weather stays at around -4 or so then it's pretty much a certainty that it will snow. IMO anyway.

[lucky_scrote]

I would advise you not to. I think those are probably terrible odds to lay on. I know that everybody will get over-excited by the prospect of it, like with the prospect of England winning the World Cup. But the recent weather suggests that it is pretty likely that it will snow in London. Have you seen London recently? It's only one week away. If the weather stays at around -4 or so then it's pretty much a certainty that it will snow. IMO anyway.

So if you think people are getting excited, how is that going to effect the odds, the same it does every xmas and people are given awful odds like 4/1 to bet on a white xmas. I was thinking of laying £4k to win £1k Matt.

The risk is that cold air stays over UK for 7 more days AND snow happens to fall in that 24 hour period. Usually for snow to hit London you need very strong north easterly winds to drag cold air in off the north sea, the other common way is a big cold front from the north. Theres one more and that you get a warm area of low pressure from the atlantic hits the stable cold air, then shit breaks loose (This is when you get that really slushy snow).

Obviously it's a risk, but it only actually snows a few times a year in London as it is anyway and like I said, it's probably still a 1/10 shot of snow falling on xmas day but the odds plummet because it's XMAS and everyone wants to be happy.

[Dice Man]

I'm surprised odds of 4/1 are being offered at all. I agree with you though that if 4/1 is being given then the odds are maybe more like 6/1. But then I guess if any bookie is allowing bets the other way then you'll get a bad bet whichever way you look at it.

[lucky_scrote]

Will Hills and other big bookies offering 2/1 on there being a white xmas in London. LMFAO at anyone putting a bean on that.

They also offer 4/11 on there not being any snowfall in London (Buckingham palace weather station). So, I am going to wait until Sunday because heavy snow is predicted for the whole of the UK over saturday night maybe giving me better odds. Who knows?!?


http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN...stmas+Day+2009

[fishboy1983]

check link

10 day Weather in London - weather.co.uk

Extended forecast for London above, now check Manchester below:-

10 day Weather in Manchester - weather.co.uk

Now there are 2 points why i think it would be a bad idea to lay, first, there is rain forecast on xmas day in London, with the temp being 2C for the low, therefore, it only needs to drop very slightly more for the rain to fall as snow, remember it only has to be 1 flake!

The second point is, Manchester is forecast snow on xmas day, so if the wind gets up, that weather front may go south and reach London early and ruin your day!

[NISHIKORI]

Hmmm,

I was just wondering whether this could be sabotagable? The market doesn't state that the one required snowflake must come from a natural source. Surely a light aircraft carrying a snowmaker machine could be an idea for a betting coup

[lucky_scrote]

check link

10 day Weather in London - weather.co.uk

Extended forecast for London above, now check Manchester below:-

10 day Weather in Manchester - weather.co.uk

Now there are 2 points why i think it would be a bad idea to lay, first, there is rain forecast on xmas day in London, with the temp being 2C for the low, therefore, it only needs to drop very slightly more for the rain to fall as snow, remember it only has to be 1 flake!

The second point is, Manchester is forecast snow on xmas day, so if the wind gets up, that weather front may go south and reach London early and ruin your day!

It doesn't work like that mate. There is one thing I did quite well academically at school and it was the weather shizz.

I did look at that forecast thing before you posted it here and even though you have to take a 10 day forecast with a pinch of salt.

[lucky_scrote]

Hmmm,

I was just wondering whether this could be sabotagable? The market doesn't state that the one required snowflake must come from a natural source. Surely a light aircraft carrying a snowmaker machine could be an idea for a betting coup

Woahahahah .


I just attempted the bet, but the max bet at the moment is £687 so I don't think I'll bother.